Analysis: Nintendo 3DS Isn't Dying (by Carl B.)
August 29, 2011, by Carl B. - Rumors of the Nintendo 3DS' demise have been greatly exaggerated.
There's not a single industry quite like gaming. Fans have such a high level of entitlement it's laughable – not even NFL fans seem to get this worked up about what are essentially toys; items strictly for our entertainment. Yet, reading message boards on various sites it would seem that being a fan of Nintendo, Sony, or Microsoft is the same as aligning yourself with a political party. The difference is that facts are completely thrown out when it comes to gaming "debates," if one could categorize them as such; if one person plays PlayStation 3, and another plays Xbox 360, the Microsoft gamer must be a soulless fascist in the eyes of the Sony fan.
The latest debate – or silly quarrel, rather – is about Nintendo's recently launched handheld, the Nintendo 3DS, and how it will stack up against Sony's PlayStation Vita.
If the 3DS lasts that long, however.
Message boards and even articles on websites such as N4G, IGN, etc, have been trying to paint the picture of failure for Nintendo 3DS. These observations are based solely on the first five months of the system's life, but most of all, they're based off of pure fanboy bias. Nintendo and Sony are competitors, yes, but that doesn't mean one has to align themselves with one handheld over the other. It isn't treason to find yourself enjoying Uncharted if you're a Nintendo fan – I'll bet that most Nintendo fans will love the Uncharted series.
Uncharted 2: Among Thieves is one of the best games to release this generation.
When one takes facts and past history into account, however, a much different view of the Nintendo 3DS can be reached – one that sees the system's faults early on, but takes into account exactly that: it hasn't even been a year since the portable released.
To get a reference point here, I'd like to think that I'm pretty fair in my assessments of Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft. When I was younger I only played Nintendo and Sega consoles, but as my tastes in video games changed I found myself interested more interested in what Sony had to offer first on PS2, then PS3, and yes, even PSP. I love Nintendo and enjoy my 3DS, but I won't for a second try and defend the publisher on their continually backwards thinking when it comes to online gaming and localization. I harshly criticized the Nintendo eShop in a piece contributed to our friends over at RoboAwesome, and I wrote about how Nintendo is letting down their loyal fans in June.
But as a fan of gaming and someone who takes objectivity, fairness, and consistency seriously, a more fact based view on Nintendo 3DS has to be taken. It isn't dying off at this point in time, folks.
The Nintendo DS, arguably the greatest modern system of all time, started off slowly. In its first week of sales, DS sold 500,000 units. According to The Register, 800,000 GameBoy Advance units were sold during that same time span. Nintendo 3DS, in comparison, managed to move "just shy" of 400,000 units.
Reggie approves.
Doomed? No, but 3DS was even slower than the original DS. There are three factors I believe attributed to this: the lack of a Mario title at launch, the public's hesitation to purchase a glasses-free 3D device, and a high price tag of $250. The original DS, on the other hand, released with Super Mario 64 DS, utilized the relatively new but popular touch screen technology, and was only $150.
No Mario at launch is a huge blow for initial sales, even if it's a remake, spinoff, or new title; almost every major Nintendo console or handheld as released with a Mario title in some form or another.
Pricing is a huge factor for any electronic device, and the $250 tag on Nintendo 3DS hurt the system in the early going. $250 is way too much for any handheld gaming system – I expect PlayStation Vita to face the same issues – and the $170 price it has now is a very good deal for the system.
Due to the price drop, the Nintendo 3DS has seen a 5000% sales increase and outsold the ultra-popular PSP in Japan by five to one. Attach rates on games – or at least good games – have also increased, as The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D took the number three spot on the latest UK sales charts.
Still, it's hard to say how many units Nintendo 3DS will move by year's end. Nintendo DS moved 2.84 million units from the time it released to December 31, 2004. The system really didn't get going until 2006, where it made a jump from 8.83 million to 14.43 million units in just four months.
Don't pretend like you're not excited.
Believe it or not, it was quite some time before a true killer app was released for Nintendo DS, similar to the problem 3DS currently faces. The first system seller for the casual audience – Nintendogs – released on April 21, 2005. The first true must buy title for the hardcore gamer was Castlevania: Dawn of Sorrow, a title that was released on October 4, 2005, just under a year after the handheld itself released. Mario Kart DS, which is getting a 3DS entry this December, didn't release until November 14, 2005.
Remakes aside, Nintendo 3DS is getting quite a few high quality titles this year – many more than the original DS had during the same time period. Kid Icarus: Uprising, Super Mario 3D Land, Mario Kart 7, and several others release before the end of 2011, and the start of 2012 is filled with promising titles such as Resident Evil: Revelations and Luigi's Mansion 2.
Given the facts and past history, notably that of 2004's Nintendo DS, it's ridiculous to write off the 3DS this early, especially when the system is picking up in sales. Even with the lowered price, Nintendo still makes quite a bit of profit; according to several reports, it only takes the publisher just over $100 to manufacture each system. If Nintendo 3DS has the same perceived issues at this time next year, then we can talk.
